Leading through Uncertainty
Your ultimate timesaving guide.
There’s the irony about change.
It’s not going to change.
That challenging reality means our only option is to increase our resilience and continuously adapt to this volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) environment.
But that’s easier said than done, right?
Amid ongoing crises, who has the time to sift through all that’s written about leading through VUCA? And yet in our recent survey you told us that navigating this chaos is your most pressing leadership challenge.
That’s why we’ve done some heavy lifting for you.
Below, we have compiled nine distilled insights and resources to help you better navigate this fast-shifting landscape and spot the hidden opportunities within it.
1) All-knowing is all-over.
Complex systems, with all their interdependencies, are - well, complex. Neither you, nor anyone else, has all the answers. Accept this and it becomes far easier to shift your mindset and alter how you lead.
As a leader, one of the most empowering things you can say is: “I don’t know the answer to that. What do you think?”
2) Think like an artist.
One of the best books we’ve read, about leading through uncertainty is Margaret Heffernan’s ‘Uncharted’. She advocates for ‘thinking like an artist’.
Artists are frequently ahead in their thinking (think about da Vinci and his aerodynamic ideas).
Yet having the courage and imagination to think like one is difficult.
It requires: making time for exploration; sitting with a question; searching for new meaning; and trusting it will emerge.
In business the challenge lies in stepping away from constant distractions to allow for thoughtful reflection and exploration. Not easy while balancing today’s demands with tomorrow’s possibilities.
3) Convene, then coax, candour, contradiction, & conflict.
In this VUCA environment, where things move swiftly, you need everyone’s eyes and ears to better understand what’s going on.
That’s why outstanding convenors are critical; those who can bring diverse groups together, then get them contributing.
Better thinking requires more options not fewer, and they only emerge when people feel safe to speak – something that stems from trust.
A fear of disagreement or even conflict silences people, strangling alternative options. If you’ve yet to discover Patrick Lencioni’s work on ‘The Five Dysfunctions of a Team’, you can discover his key insights here.
In Certain Uncertainty contributing author, Modupe Taylor-Peare, tells a story about how one African president got better ideas by speaking last. Staying quiet isn’t easy, but when leaders speak first, others are less likely to contradict them. Leaders who speak first leave with less information and fewer ideas, resulting in poorer decisions.
4) Beware of false prophets.
Be sceptical of those who offer predictions that promise everlasting glory. While they may do so with bullish confidence, these are false claims. No one can offer absolute certainty in an uncertain world.
Believing a forecasted future is dangerous.
If it doesn’t pan out it leaves you ill-prepared.
It can also become a self-fulfilling prophecy if people disengage and give into ‘the inevitable’.
Ask yourself: In whose interest does this prediction lie? And remember, no outcome is inevitable. What we do now impacts what happens next. Right now, we still have a choice.
5) Approach everything as a hypothesis.
As new knowledge emerges even the best insights get overwritten. Treating everything as a hypothesis, then experimenting and exploring to disprove it, enables you to adapt as newer insights emerge.
Now famed for her work on Psychological Safety, Amy Edmondson’s doctoral research didn’t return the results she expected.
Instead, they disproved her hypothesis: that high performing hospital teams made the least mistakes. Her data suggested they made more. But it was Edmondson’s response and overwriting her initial hypothesis that led to her discoveries about Psychological Safety.
6) Ditch perfection for scepticism.
It’s a myth that perfect decisions are possible when what we have is imperfect data, imperfect systems, and imperfect people.
Healthy scepticism on the other hand encourages us to keep asking better questions - ‘what if’ and ‘so what’?
By continuing to ask such questions, the emerging picture becomes clearer, but it’s never perfect, never static.
7) Look out and ahead.
Not wedding yourself to an outcome doesn’t mean not looking ahead. Being flexible to multiple possibilities allows for better preparation and adaptability. This approach, known as 'just in case thinking,' 'scenario planning,' or 'pre-mortem,' helps anticipate various future scenarios.
Former GCHQ Director David Omand calls this 'Strategic Notice'.
It’s a concept he explores in his book 'Ten Lessons in Intelligence'. Within it he presents a model that intelligence analysts use to better assess information, anticipate what might happen, and make more informed decisions. For a brief summary of the ‘SEES’ model, access our free summary here.
8) Get comfortable with paradox.
In a complex world contradiction can coexist, so we need to get comfortable with paradox.
Automation, for example, can reduce the need for routine cognitive skills, leading to their decline, yet simultaneously demand higher-level skills for complex problem-solving, thus enhancing cognitive abilities.
That a VUCA environment encompasses both threats and opportunities is surely the ultimate paradox? Robert Johansen’s VUCA Prime model highlights this, countering each VUCA component with an alternative to seize the opportunity it affords. Our summary of it here may be of interest.
9) Be clear. Be decent. Be consistent.
We often judge ourselves by intentions and others by actions.
In a VUCA world, aligning these by ‘walking the talk’ in a clear, decent, and consistent way can provide stability amidst uncertainty.
It’s human nature to want certainty but accepting that it’s unattainable, that there is no silver bullet, is crucial.
It’s how you think, behave, and respond that determines how painful this ongoing change is.
And what’s required to cultivate the adaptive mindset, skillset, and ways of working we need to succeed? Well, that’s ever-evolving too.
March 2024
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